www.CyprusPolls.org

Searching for a mutually acceptable Comprehensive Settlement in Cyprus

 

Diplomatic efforts to resolve the Cyprus Problem have tended in the past to be closed affairs, wherein the elected representatives of the two sides would conduct negotiations "behind closed doors", with the public only being brought into the process at the final stage, when through referendums they are asked if they approve or reject the offered proposal. If, however, the Cypriot people are the final arbitrators of any proposal, would it not make sense to find a way to closely involve them in the negotiation process, from the first stages? This website presents the findings of various surveys that have been conducted since the referendum of April 2004, wherein Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots were asked to evaluate various options for defining a Comprehensive Peace Plan in the case of a recommencement of negotiations. The surveys covered in detail various aspects of a comprehensive settlement, such as Security, Governance, Property Rights, Settlers, the Economy, Education, Legal Status and Implementation Guarantees. Through the results, areas are suggested wherein mutually acceptable provisions can easily be found, but also areas wherein the demands of the two sides are in sharp opposition, thus highlighting the necessity for creative and balanced solutions. Overall, the findings of the surveys point the way towards the drafting of a new Settlement Plan under UN auspices, such that will respond to the fundamental concerns of all Cypriots and have a strong possibility of being accepted by both communities in a future re-unification referendum.

 

Note by the author:

 

Readers who are particularly interested in the substantive issues and dilemmas currently facing the two communities regarding the content of a Comprehensive Settlement Agreement may wish to read Options for Peace: Mapping the possibilities for a Comprehensive Settlement in Cyprus (June 2005) and Rational Agent or Unthinking Follower: A survey-based profile analysis of Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot referendum voters (Feb.2007).

 

Readers who prefer to focus on the debate over the process by which Comprehensive Settlement negotiations will henceforth be pursued may wish to read the two most recent articles published here below, namely 8th July 2006: The Unappreciated Breakthrough (Nov.2007) and From Secret Diplomacy to Public Diplomacy: How the Annan Plan Referendum Failure earned the Cypriot Public a Seat at the Negotiating Table (Oct. 2007).

 

Readers who are interested in the subject of Confidence Building Measures may find useful data in Building Trust: An Inter-communal Analysis of Public Opinion in Cyprus (June 2006). Finally, a survey commissioned by the UN Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus, titled The UN in Cyprus: An Inter-communal Survey of Public Opinion by UNFICYP (April 2007) provides particularly useful insight into the way Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots view the role of the UN in supporting the peace process.

 

 

 

 

Reports available for download:

Download Instructions: To just view a report in your Internet Browser, left-click on the relevant link. To download it onto your own computer, right-click on the relevant link, then left-click on "Save Target As:" and select a directory on your computer in which to save the file.

 

 

November 2007 ... 8th July 2006: The Unappreciated Breakthrough

 

This article, published in the November 2007 edition of the Friends of Cyprus Report, attempts to outline the rationale and usefulness of the 8 July Process as a method to move beyond the current stalemate and formulate the basis of a new agreement in Cyprus, such that will respond to the fundamental concerns of both communities. The article concludes that the 8 July Process is compatible with the need to re-engage the two communities in a creative process of negotiations, though care should be taken to include in the process a dimension of public consultation for those issues where the wider Cypriot public has particularly strong views that must be taken into account while negotiating the specific provisions of a Comprehensive Settlement Plan.

 

To download the article, click here.

 

 

 

 

October 2007 ... From Secret Diplomacy to Public Diplomacy: How the Annan Plan Referendum Failure earned the Cypriot Public a Seat at the Negotiating Table

 

This article, awaiting publication by I.B. Tauris as part of a wider book project, traces the historical progression from the older top-down process that had led to the Annan Plan to the participatory models and approaches for solving the Cyprus Problem that have attained popularity in the years since 2004. Through the presentation of numerous public opinion surveys that have been conducted since 2004, the article argues in favour of a more inclusive negotiating process, with a grass-roots component that should inform but not overwhelm the political negotiations.

 

To download the article, click here.

 

 

 

 

April 2007 ... The UN in Cyprus: An Inter-Communal Survey of Public Opinion by UNFICYP

 

This survey, commissioned by UNFICYP to evaluate the effectiveness and on-going relevance of its work on the island, was conducted with a sample of 1000 Greek Cypriots, 1000 Turkish Cypriots and 350 individuals currently residing with the UN Buffer Zone. The findings of the survey highlight the underlying attitudes of both communities towards the UN, perceptions related to security issues such as predicted risks and sources of security and insecurity, attitudes towards inter-communal contact, habits related to the use of the crossing points, the basic acceptability of different solution scenarios, and finally the acceptability of the 8 July Process as compared to the acceptability of the previous Annan Plan Process.

 

To download the full report, click here.

 

 

 

 

February 2007 ... Rational Agent or Unthinking Follower? A survey-based profile analysis of Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot referendum voters

 

This article, awaiting publication by Manchester University Press as part of a wider book project and based on earlier data collected in May 2005 with a sample of 1,000 Greek Cypriots and 1,000 Turkish Cypriots, represents an attempt to understand in-depth the various factors that led Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots to vote the way they did in the April 2004 referendum. Through a series of statistical regression models, an attempt is made to define the relative importance of attitudinal factors versus plan-specific factors, and also to understand the role that Political Party Discipline played in the voting process. Beyond the post-mortem of the April 2004 referendum, an attempt is made to use the statistical models in a predictive manner, in order to discover the specific conditions that will need to be met (political, attitudinal, and plan-specific) in order to achieve a simultaneous Yes vote both by Greek Cypriots and by Turkish Cypriots in a future re-unification referendum.

 

To download the article, click here.

 

 

 

 

June 2006 ... Building Trust: An Inter-Communal Analysis of Public Opinion in Cyprus

 

This report is based on a large bicommunal survey, conducted in April 2006 with a sample of 1,000 Greek Cypriots and 1,000 Turkish Cypriots who were interviewed face-to-face. In this survey, data is collected about the current level of trust between the two communities, while different indicators of desire for co-existence are tested. Beyond a diagnosis of the current situation, an exploration is made regarding the acceptability of various possible Confidence Building Measures, both unilateral and bilateral, in order to discover ways of increasing the level of trust between the two communities, and paving the way for a resumption of full-scale negotiations leading to a Comprehensive Settlement.

 

To download the full report, click here.

 

 

 

 

June 2005 … Options for Peace: Mapping the possibilities for a Comprehensive Settlement in Cyprus  

 

This report is based on a large bicommunal survey, conducted in May 2005 with a sample of 1,000 Greek Cypriots and 1,000 Turkish Cypriots who were interviewed face-to-face. In this survey, an attempt is made to discover mutually acceptable compromises on the key issues of the Cyprus Problem, such that will point the way for a mutually acceptable drafting of a new Settlement Plan.

 

To download the full report, click here.

 

 

 

 

February 2005 … Civil Society Diplomacy: A new approach for Cyprus?

 

This report is a comparative study, wherein the responses of 1,000 Greek Cypriots (collected in September 2004, over the telephone) regarding areas of concern toward the UN Plan, are compared with the responses of 700 Turkish Cypriots (collected in January 2005, through face-to-face interviews), to see which of the Greek Cypriot concerns the Turkish Cypriots would be willing to satisfy, and which concerns they would oppose with counter-demands of their own.

 

To download the full report, click here.

 

To download a PowerPoint presentation based on this report, made at the Wilton Park conference on 17th February 2005,  click here.

 

 

 

 

November 2004 … Can the Cyprus Problem be Solved? Understanding the Greek Cypriot response to the UN Peace Plan for Cyprus

 

This report is based on a survey conducted in September 2004, with a sample of 1,000 Greek Cypriots who were interviewed over the telephone. The study seeks to explain the Greek Cypriot response to the referendum of April 2004, including an analysis both of political influence in the period before and after the referendum, and of areas of Greek Cypriot concern concerning the provisions of  the UN Plan itself.

 

To download the full report, click here.